There are a lot of reasons to think that Al Gore just might ultimately run for President this year. Many in the Democratic party still feel strongly that he was cheated out of victory in 2000, having won the popular vote. The success of his film, An Inconvenient Truth, and the Academy Award he recently won, have only galvanized many Democratic activists into thinking that the time is ripe for his re-entry into the political arena. Mr. Gore, after all is a nominee for a Nobel Prize and will be sponsoring a world wide concert to raise awareness about global warming this summer.

Nonetheless, I still believe it is unlikely the former Vice President will run. First of all, there are three strong candidates for President–Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and former Senator John Edwards–who command large amounts of support from Democratic primary voters. When polled, those primary voters say that in large measure they are satisfied with the choices before them. Moreover, when Gore’s name is added to national trial heats, he polls in the low single digits, well behind Senators Clinton and Obama and at about the same level as John Edwards.

Finally, while enjoying near universal name recognition, former Vice President Gore does still have a somewhat negative rating with the electorate–a rating it will be difficult to fundamentally alter unless he were to raise a very large sum of money very quickly for the intense media blitz that would be necessary to do this. There is no indication the Vice President is planning to enter the race anytime soon, suggesting to me that there is only one circumstance where I believe he would enter and immediately could become a viable candidate.

Should Senator Edwards be unable to continue his campaign for the Presidency–and given his passion and commitment as well as the obvious courage displayed by his wife Elizabeth I very much hope this does not happen–then there would be an opportunity for the Vice President to re-enter the scene.

Edwards’ constituency would also certainly become Gore’s under those circumstances as both now appeal to a liberal, more upscale segment of the primary electorate which is both most ideological, anti-Bush, and of course anti-war.

It is a scenario I am reluctant to speculate about given the strength and passion both John and Elizabeth Edwards have demonstrated. At the very least, hopefully, the Edwards’ national display of grace and determination will galvanize Democrats, indeed all American political leaders, to do more to expand access to high quality health care–before the 2008 election.